Effect of Climatic Variability Parameters on Maize Yields in Central and Eastern Ethiopia

Abstract

This study uses long-term observed and future data to assess how climatic conditions affect maize output throughout Ethiopia's four agro-ecological zones and the relationship between climate variables and maize yield. In both lowland and highland zones, trend analyses showed increasing maximum and minimum temperatures and decreasing precipitation, rainy-season duration, wet-day frequency, and seasonal rainfall. The results of regression and correlation studies indicate that factors linked to rainfall account for 61.64% of the variability in maize yield, emphasizing precipitation as a key factor influencing productivity. Rainfall variability was identified as the most important determinant of maize yield, particularly in lowland and moisture-stressed areas, where delayed onset, early cessation, and uneven distribution of rainfall substantially reduced crop productivity. However, highland and midland areas were more sensitive to increasing temperatures, which accelerated crop development, shortened the grain-filling period, and ultimately reduced grain yield. The combined effects of increasing temperatures and irregular rainfall intensified water stress during critical growth stages, resulting in considerable yield reductions across all agro-ecological zones. Findings emphasize the necessity of location-specific agronomic adaptations and policy interventions, such as drought-tolerant varieties, adjusted planting dates, and water-conserving practices, to sustain maize production under changing climatic conditions.