The Convergence of Crisis and System: Assessing Educational Outcomes for IDP Children in the Selected Two Regions of Ethiopia

Abstract

This study addresses the critical problem of how violent conflict disrupts educational systems and trajectories for internally displaced children. It analyzes the dynamic interplay between crisis conditions and institutional responses in shaping educational outcomes, focusing on Ethiopia's Oromia and Amhara regions. Employing a convergent parallel mixed-methods design, the research integrates quantitative survey data from 624 participants with qualitative insights from focus groups and interviews. Findings reveal severe emergency conditions: 87% of children experienced school interruptions exceeding six months, 72% reported damaged infrastructure, and over 80% lacked textbooks. Systemic support was critically inadequate, with only 65% of children reached by temporary learning spaces and 19.2% receiving educational materials. A multivariate regression model showed a significant negative interaction effect (β = -0.24, p = 0.003) between crisis intensity and system effectiveness, meaning institutional support fails to mitigate the damaging impact of escalating emergencies. Qualitative analysis identified three explanatory failure pathways: logistical breakdowns, capacity overwhelm, and trust erosion. The integrated results demonstrate that educational outcomes are determined not by crisis or system capacity in isolation, but by their detrimental interaction. This evidence necessitates fundamentally re-imagined interventions based on adaptive design, decentralized systems, and genuine community collaboration to support education in conflict-affected contexts.