Tempospatial Variability and Change in Future Rainfall and Temperature under RCP Scenarios in Didessa River Basin, Ethiopia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.20372/afnr.v1i2.838Keywords:
Climate change, Didessa River Basin, RCP scenarios, Rainfall and Temperature VariabilityAbstract
Didessa River Basin contributes one-fourth of the Blue Nile’s annual total flow. However, climate change and variability information is generally lacking under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) in the study basin. This study was designed to assess future rainfall and temperature variability and change under RCP2.6, 4.5 & 8.5 scenarios in the 2030, 2050, and 2080’s of the 21st century with reference to 1984 to 2014 historical rainfall and temperature. Ensemble mean of daily rainfall and temperature data of 17 CMIP5 climate models was collected from MarkSimTM weather generator in the Google Earth interface. Changes in onset and cessation of rain season between the historical and future periods were assessed using the INSTAT+v3.37 version. Results of the study indicated decrease in the average winter season rainfall amount at three stations while that of the remaining three stations increased under all RCP scenarios in all three future time intervals. Autumn season rainfall increases at three stations and decreases at the others under all RCP scenarios. Rainfall CV increases under all RCP scenarios compared to 1984 to 2014 historical rainfall in all future time intervals. The length of the rain season decreases in three future periods under all RCPs while maximum and minimum temperatures increase up to 3.58 oC and 2.7oC, respectively, in the late 21st century under RCP8.5. Therefore, it is important to increase forest cover as a mechanism to increase sink for carbon dioxide and also to select crop varieties, which easily adapt to climate change.
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Copyright (c) 2023 Journal of Agriculture, Food and Natural Resources
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Journal of Agriculture, Food and Natural Resources
Wallaga University,
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Accepted 2023-12-23
Published 2023-12-31
