Variability and Extremes of MAM Season Rainfall in Ethiopia: Insights from the 2023 Anomalous Event
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.20372/afnr.v2i1.972Keywords:
Anomaly, Belg season, Climate indices , TAMSAT, TrendAbstract
The variability of MAM (March to May) rainfall in Ethiopia is among the most important agrometeorological parameters for the success of agriculture and water management practices. This study therefore set out to analyze the anomalous increase of MAM season rainfall in 2023 using high-resolution Tropical Applications of Meteorology using Satellite data and ground-based observations (TAMSAT) rainfall estimate. A combination of multiple statistical methods was used to analyze and compare the 2023 MAM season rainfall with baseline mean across Ethiopia using the 40 years (1983-2022) dataset. Results showed that MAM rainfall in 2023 (412.81mm) was 79% above average for the baseline period, with extremely wet conditions in the March and April months. Similarly, the 2023 MAM season rainfall anomaly exceeded historical short rainy seasons by 80-130mm and was spatially concentrated in the southwestern and central parts of Ethiopia. Statistical analyses (t-test) also confirmed significant differences between the MAM season rainfall of 2023 and the 1983-2022 averages at p<0.001 for all months solely and at the seasonal scale. Comparisons with previous high rainfall years indicated that the 2023 MAM season was an extreme and anomalous event. The study highlights the importance of understanding seasonal rainfall variability and extremes in Ethiopia, as they have direct implications for food availability, water resource management, and climate change adaptation strategies. Further research using other datasets is needed to demonstrate the utility of high-resolution satellite rainfall estimates for monitoring anomalies and improving early warning systems in the country.
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Accepted 2024-04-17
Published 2024-04-30
