Determinants of smallholder farmers’ perceptions of climate change variability and its impacts on livestock production: evidence from Selamago district, South Omo zone, Southern Ethiopia
Keywords:
Climate change , Perception, Livestock production, Smallholder farmers, Rainfall , Temperature trends, Adaptive capacityAbstract
Climate change is no longer a distant concern for pastoral and agro-pastoral households in Selamago District, South Omo Zone, Southern Ethiopia; it is a tangible reality affecting livestock-based livelihoods. This study examined determinants of smallholder farmers’ perceptions of climate change impacts on livestock production using a mixed-method cross-sectional design. Data were collected from 385 households through structured surveys, focus group discussions, and key informant interviews, and analyzed using descriptive statistics, Modified Mann–Kendall (MMK) trend test, and Partial Proportional Odds Model (PPOM). Results show that 53.77% of respondents perceived severe impacts on livestock, while 24.68% indicated climate change had completely transformed farming conditions, and only 4.16% reported no impact. Regarding climate trends, 51.98% of farmers perceived increasing temperatures, and 78.39% observed declining rainfall. MMK confirmed rainfall decreases in January (−1.03 mm/year) and November (−1.13 mm/year), increases in April (0.68), July (0.84), and December (0.42), while annual rainfall was stable (−0.034). Mean annual temperatures averaged 26–27°C, with localized cooling in April (−0.115°C), September (−0.077°C), and January (−0.090°C). PPOM results revealed that the age of the household head (OR=0.90, p=0.003) and farm size (OR=0.04) reduced the likelihood of higher climate impact perception, while livestock ownership (OR=1.86), male-headed households (OR=7.24), grazing land access (OR=8.59), institutional membership (OR=4.12), and prior climate awareness (OR=6.62) increased perception, whereas off-farm activity participation (OR=0.56) reduced it. Overall, findings indicate perceptions are shaped by climatic, socioeconomic, and institutional factors, highlighting the need for improved climate information services, extension support, and access to adaptive resources for resilience-building strategies enhancement.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Journal of Agriculture, Food and Natural Resources
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Journal of Agriculture, Food and Natural Resources
Wallaga University,
All rights reserved.
Accepted 2026-04-23
Published 2026-04-30
