Farmers’ perception of Rainfall and Temperature Variability and Its Trends in North Mecha District, Amhara Region

Abstract

The study evaluated local farmers’ perceptions of changes in climate conditions and examined historical climatic trends over the 1987–2022 period. A cross-sectional research approach was employed, with participants selected through a multistage sampling technique. Primary data were generated from interviews, focus group discussions, and consultations with key informants-complementary secondary information obtained from agricultural offices, development agents, and the Bahir Dar Meteorological Station. Historical climate records were analyzed using Excel 2016 and XLSTAT version 16 to determine patterns, variability, and trends in climatic conditions. Rainfall fluctuations were quantified using the coefficient of variation (CV) and rainfall anomaly index (RAI). The findings indicated considerable seasonal variability in precipitation, particularly during the Bega and Belg seasons, where CV values reached 37.6% and 32.8%, respectively. Annual rainfall exhibited a decreasing tendency of 4.87 mm per year, while Kiremt rainfall declined at a rate of 3.96 mm annually. Conversely, both maximum and minimum annual temperatures showed increasing tendencies. Mean annual temperature increased significantly by approximately 0.044°C each year (p < 0.05). Consistent with the observed temperature increase and rainfall decline, most respondents across the agro-ecological zones perceived those temperatures had become warmer while rainfall had generally decreased. The results emphasize the importance of developing context-specific climate adaptation interventions that incorporate the socioeconomic conditions and environmental factors shaping farmers’ exposure and vulnerability to climate variability.