Effects of Rainfall and Temperature Variability and Trends on Wheat Yield in Horro District, Horro Guduru Wollega Zone, Ethiopia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.20372/afnr.v4i2.2281Keywords:
Climate , Trend , Variability, Wheat, YieldAbstract
This research examined the fluctuations and patterns in precipitation and temperature between 1990 and 2025 and their impacts on wheat yield. Rainfall and temperature historical data acquired from NASA POWER and meteorological records, whereas wheat yield information for 2006–2025 sourced from the agricultural office. Furthermore, information was gathered from 145 randomly chosen wheat-producing households using questionnaires, key informant interviews, and focus group discussions. Descriptive statistics, Mann–Kendall trend evaluation, and Pearson correlation assessment applied to examine the data. The findings indicated upward patterns in maximum and minimum annual temperatures, with rates of about 0.031°C and 0.021°C each year, respectively. In comparison, yearly and seasonal precipitation displayed decreasing trends and significant fluctuations. Belg rainfall exhibited the highest variability (CV = 48.69%), followed by annual rainfall (26.20%) and Kiremt rainfall (18.43%). Wheat production showed a negative correlation with minimum temperature (r = −0.477, p < 0.05) and maximum temperature (r = −0.820, p < 0.01), whereas positive correlations were found with Belg rainfall (r = 0.823, p < 0.01) and Kiremt rainfall (r = 0.399, p < 0.05). Farmers noted rising temperatures, postponed rainfall start, premature end, and erratic rainfall patterns, which adversely impacted wheat yields. The results show that increasing temperatures along with decreasing and inconsistent rainfall are significant climatic factors affecting wheat yield in Horro District. Enhancing climate information, extension services, encouraging heat- and drought-resistant wheat varieties, and advancing soil and water management practices are crucial to boost wheat productivity and farmer resilience to climate variability.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Journal of Agriculture, Food and Natural Resources
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Journal of Agriculture, Food and Natural Resources
Wallaga University,
All rights reserved.
Accepted 2026-08-28
Published 2026-08-31
